10 September 2015

Holiday season brings slowdown in eating and drinking-out growth

Total Like For Like Sales Growth

• Like-for-likes up 0.6% in August against same month last year
• Weaker performance from restaurants; stronger from pubs

Britain’s managed pub and restaurant groups saw sales growth slow in August. Collective like-for-like sales were up just 0.6% on August last year, latest figures from the Coffer Peach Business Tracker show. Total sales, including the impact of new openings, were up 4.3%.

London, bolstered by strong trading in pubs, fared slightly better than the rest of the country, with like-for-likes up 1.0% against 0.5% for outside the M25. Total sales, however, grew most out of London, up 5.0% against 2.4% for inside the M25 – reflecting the continuing investment in new openings, especially among branded restaurants, away from the Capital.

“The sector remains in growth mode, but it seems both the weather and holidays abroad played a part in making this August only marginally better than last,” said Peter Martin, vice president of CGA Peach, the business insight consultancy that produces the Tracker, in partnership with Coffer Group, Baker Tilly and UBS.

The August numbers follow steady but sustained like-for-like growth of 1.1% in July, 1.7% in June and 2.1% in May.

“More people flying abroad for holidays this year – with Gatwick Airport reporting its busiest ever August bank holiday weekend – will have had an effect on August trading,” Martin said. “The fact that the retail sector had a poor month with sales actually down on last year won’t have helped some restaurants either.”

“Although the weather this August was nothing to write home about, August 2014 was particularly cold, which resulted in a decline in pub sales and a boost for restaurants in 2014. This year we seem to have seen a corresponding recovery for pubs and more modest progress for restaurants,” he added.

Drink-led pubs, which account for about a third of the Tracker sample, saw collective like-for-likes up 2.8% on August last year, with casual dining chains, another third of the cohort, up just 0.4% nationally, and down in London. Pub restaurants and food-led pubs, making up the other third of the sample, were down for the month.

The Coffer Peach data comes directly from 31 participating companies, including a cross-section of managed operators, from major players such as Mitchells & Butlers, Whitbread, Stonegate, Pizza Hut and Pizza Express to smaller, and sometimes regionally-based, groups such as Living Ventures, Hall & Woodhouse, Byron, Loungers, Peach Pub Co and Bistrot Pierre. (See full list below)

Paul Newman, head of leisure and hospitality at Baker Tilly, said: “A continuation of the positive trend in LFL sales, albeit marginal, will be seen by operators as a positive result given the late timing of the summer bank holiday and bad weather for much of August. We are seeing a number of well-funded, emerging young brands posting market-beating sales and we expect the larger operators to find it increasingly hard to maintain historic rates of LFL growth in the face of such stiff competition.”

Trevor Watson, director at Davis Coffer Lyons, part of the Coffer Group, said: “The reduction in the rate of growth is largely a reflection of the much steeper drop in retail sales that has been reported across the UK during the same period. While the F&B market continues to outperform retail, reduced activity in shopping centres and high streets will have led to subdued revenues in restaurants in these locations. We predict a significant improvement in the figures as we move into the autumn months, which will be underpinned by strong performances from leisure parks as a result of a number of forthcoming major new film releases.”

Jarrod Castle, leisure analyst at UBS Investment Research, observed: “The trend continues to be one of moderating like-for-likes. The 12-month moving average growth rate moderated to 1.5% from July’s 1.9% and 1.8% in June for like-for-like sales, while total sales growth was 5.4% against July’s 5.5% and June’s 5.45%.”

The Coffer Peach Tracker industry sales monitor for the UK pub and restaurant sector collects and analyses monthly performance data from 31 operating groups, and is recognised as the established industry benchmark.

About Coffer Peach Business Tracker CGA Peach collects sales figures directly 31 leading companies. Participants include Mitchells & Butlers* (owner of Harvester, Toby, Browns, All Bar One etc), Pizza Hut, Whitbread (Beefeater, Brewers Fayre, Table Table), Pizza Express, Spirit Group (Flaming Grill, Fayre & Square), TGI Fridays, Casual Dining Group (Café Rouge, Bella Italia), Stonegate (Slug & Lettuce, Yates’), Marston’s, Azzurri Restaurants (Zizzi, ASK), Wagamama, YO! Sushi, Novus (Tiger Tiger), Fuller’s, Carluccio’s, Young’s, Living Ventures, Strada, Amber Taverns, Hall & Woodhouse, Gaucho, Las Iguanas, Intertain (Walkabout), TCG, La Tasca, Giraffe, Loungers, Byron, Peach Pub Co, Le Bistrot Pierre and Downing LLP (investment partner of Antic London)

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